Maybe time to stop investing in Mining machines

dolleminerdolleminer Member Posts: 50
I was thinking to buy 10 machines with 60x AMD RX 480 Total price will be around 19K Euro. And it will take 1200-1300W and for me it cost €0.167 Kw and I think you will get around 175+- Hashrate each machine.

When I look at the network hashrate chart its not profitable anymore. Everymonth the Network hashrate will grow around 20%.
Early 2017 PoS will be released. And I need to get atleast all my investments back.

I think its a better Idea juts to buy right now for 20K Ethereum and lets see what the Future will bring.
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Comments

  • dlehenkydlehenky Member Posts: 2,249 ✭✭✭✭
    There's any number of ways of looking at it, but yours is certainly a very valid one. It's obvious to me that some deep pockets are starting to jump into eth mining, given the recent rapid rise in network hashing power and difficulty. Good luck!
  • itssme2itssme2 AustriaMember Posts: 17
    I defently agree, but at the time when the rx 480 will come out there will be a price drop of all other high end AMD cards. I will look forward an buy some used cards at that time and let them work till they switch to pos. And whem the switch to POS is done i will remove the cooler on the cards and cook some steaks :0 yam delicius :D
  • adasebadaseb Member Posts: 1,043 ✭✭✭
    Yeah your power is around 0.20/kwh US or so. Very soon it might not be profitable for you.

    Maybe get it hosted at work or at some friends house who has electricity included with his rent.

  • XylocaineXylocaine Member Posts: 57
    Mining is a long time investment, high-risk of corse. ^^

    According to network hashrate and difficulty stats:
    March to April - +64,3% diff, +97,5% hashrate
    April to May - +45,2% diff +41,8% hashrate
    May to June - +21,8% diff, +23,3% hashrate
    If we assume further diff/hashrate growth of +20% per month - you should ROI in fiat after 4 months at current ETH and BTC price. Then you can mine until it will be not profitable and sell your eq or wait for another coin. Probably there will be another coin, as always. ;)

    If I would buy something other than new rigs - I will go BTC instead of ETH. :)
  • dlehenkydlehenky Member Posts: 2,249 ✭✭✭✭
    @Xylocaine But the BTC halving is a month away; the block award gets cut by %50.
  • ethereumfanaticethereumfanatic Member Posts: 27
    dlehenky said:

    @Xylocaine But the BTC halving is a month away; the block award gets cut by %50.

    Yes. Ethereum mining is the only coin still viable for the average joe.
  • XylocaineXylocaine Member Posts: 57
    @dlehenky I mean buy BTC instead of ETH and hold until halving. But new Antminer S9 looks promising, should be still profitable to mine BTC after the halving.
  • greenusergreenuser 50.8862°N 4.5537°WMember Posts: 439 ✭✭
    edited June 2016
    @dolleminer it's no good just holding eth, you have to use it or it will die out.
    Empty blocks are not good for eth miners. Given that it will go to PoS i would not build rigs in your position. Having Eth is one thing, but try finding a way of using them? Please?
    Post edited by greenuser on
  • workwork Member Posts: 2,084 ✭✭✭✭
    I recall people saying pretty much the same thing a few months ago... boy were they wrong.
  • AzDragonAzDragon Member Posts: 6
    Yea I plan to keep mining until it does not make a profit. Right now the ETH generated is about 6 times my electrical cost. I also see that when the 2GB limit hits that at least half of the miners will be stopped. I have stopped building new rigs for myself as I am waiting to see how the R9 480 does, it should be a bit faster and use much less power. I think that the price will follow the hash rate increase.....so the return will still be good.
  • greenusergreenuser 50.8862°N 4.5537°WMember Posts: 439 ✭✭
    edited June 2016
    dlehenky said:

    @Xylocaine But the BTC halving is a month away; the block award gets cut by %50.

    4 weeks, 2 days, 16 hours, 20 minutes to be exact.
    Yes and if the currency does not double in value against fiat, people will shut down their mines rather than run at a loss and the network will shrink. Remember how full those blocks are. People will have to increase the transaction fee to at least 0.8mBTC./kb, (still cheaper than what you pay at the exchange, still cheaper than paypal) to get quick conformations.
    Remember, when bitcoin mining is over, miners will have to survive on just the transaction fee.
    The value has to go up.

    2/3 of the network is Chinese and the Yuan is depreciating. The government are buying gold and the people are buying bitcoin and litecoin. The US fed refuse to put up interest rates so the dollar will weaken against gold so they will not buy US treasuary bonds. Remember, the Chinese are the second biggest economy and the worlds biggest potential market. The Party recently stated that they were going to focus on their domestic market as their foreign market (us) are just too small. They want to focus on A.I. and more automation before they build more trade with us. So they have gone protectionist and China needs Bitcoin.
  • oslakoslak Member Posts: 191
    @greenuser haven't seen you for a while. Have you found blocks lately? the diff is skyrocketting these days.
  • greenusergreenuser 50.8862°N 4.5537°WMember Posts: 439 ✭✭
    I may have found a few.... Too many empty blocks though. People need to use eth more and fill them up a bit. :)
  • XylocaineXylocaine Member Posts: 57
    @greenuser Yep, probably BTC will double until halving, but short after that should be huge selloff (ppl will take profit) and BTC should drop below current value. What's next? When the mines will shut down - difficulty also should fall = faster blocks. Network stability should be preserved. And then after release new ASICs diff will still grow exponentially. That one of the scenario. It will be interesting times for crypto... :D
  • greenusergreenuser 50.8862°N 4.5537°WMember Posts: 439 ✭✭
    @Xylocaine Will you be buying a S9 with your eth harvest? ;)
  • XylocaineXylocaine Member Posts: 57
    @greenuser I think about it, but I will not decide probably. I never mined BTC before 'cause I love rigs - there is a lot more fun with it and way more flexible. :D Currently I slowly selling ETH at peaks and holding BTC until halving.
  • greenusergreenuser 50.8862°N 4.5537°WMember Posts: 439 ✭✭
    yer, all this fuss cos bitcoin reward goes down 50% in 4weeks. (it was designed to be deflationary)
    And remember, ethereum reward goes down by 100% in 4 months. (PoS)
    then a dash to dash i think? Why don't we have a fork and start a miners coin?

    I know no one can see the future but there is another big sub prime bubble about to happen in motor vehicle finance sector. Will the banks that are over leveraged be bailed out again?
    Exciting times for crypto.
  • o0ragman0oo0ragman0o Member, Moderator Posts: 1,291 mod
    greenuser said:

    yer, all this fuss cos bitcoin reward goes down 50% in 4weeks. (it was designed to be deflationary)
    And remember, ethereum reward goes down by 100% in 4 months. (PoS)

    @greenuser Where are you getting 4 months from?

  • oslakoslak Member Posts: 191
    @greenuser are you on pool now or still solo?

    @o0ragman0o I saw your enode on one of your old post, Is it still active? Having a hard time finding peers using 1.3.5/1.3.6 version of geth.
  • TimboSliceTimboSlice Member Posts: 76 ✭✭
    I don't see why people thing BTC is going to double in price. The general thought seems to be that the supply will go down, so the price must go up. But the supply isn't dropping dramatically, only the rate that the supply is increasing is going down. And applying any modern economic theory to a completely new monetary technology seems a little unreliable. Then again, the market seems to be run totally on emotion, so maybe it will double...
  • greenusergreenuser 50.8862°N 4.5537°WMember Posts: 439 ✭✭
    Have been pool mining for last 24h. Everything is growing too quickly, well all but the price. If the price goes up enough i will switch back to solo. I run the numbers daily. its tight.
    @o0ragman0o 4 to 5 months until something gives: diff, hashrate, eth price, elctric price . That's my conservative estimate. What do you think the reward will be at PoS? Transaction fees only? Plus who will get it? Miners, the pools?
  • dlehenkydlehenky Member Posts: 2,249 ✭✭✭✭
    @greenuser There are no "miners" in PoS, there are "validators", and there are only going to be a small number - 250 if memory serves me, although I suppose that number could change by the time they implement it. There's a variable block award that theoretically maxes out at 10%, but I'm not sure what it's 10% of, to be honest. Perhaps it's 10% of what you "bet" on the block to validate it. The validators get the reward plus the transaction fees. There is talk of pools forming, where the pool is a validator. If you read the Ethereum Blog authored by VB not too long after the Homestead hard fork, there's more details there.
  • greenusergreenuser 50.8862°N 4.5537°WMember Posts: 439 ✭✭
    @dlehenky yes i know, so you need a big stake (like 6 fingers plus of USD) that you are not using (and don't mind losing) and.... a server grid.
    It would suit a large bank or card provider. A Google like company. If you are one of the 250 validators your not gonna think grid, you gonna cluster somewhere with low labour rates but a tech savvy population. I think China will be a preoccupied with Bitcoin... that puts India in the frame as a host. India has cheaper electric than China anyway. But it means centralisation. I'm not seeing this pan out too well.

    So will it be worth running a node even?

    What are we all gonna do with this glut of redundant GPU power? Maybe you can sell some CPU power or storage space to the ethereum network for some eth but who will want the GPU power.... Dash? It may be worth selling my rig now! People are still talking of setting up mining rigs. look at ebay for plug'n'play ethereum rigs, they are there. Ok, i have ROI but once your into less than 50% return (and falling) it all starts getting arduous. Especialy with the end of mining looming.

    Like the man said "Maybe time to stop investing in Mining machines"

    At current eth prices anyhow. And with Bitcoin stealing the lime light....
    intersting times!
  • Marvell9Marvell9 Member Posts: 593 ✭✭✭
    greenuser said:

    yer, all this fuss cos bitcoin reward goes down 50% in 4weeks. (it was designed to be deflationary)
    And remember, ethereum reward goes down by 100% in 4 months. (PoS)
    then a dash to dash i think? Why don't we have a fork and start a miners coin?

    I know no one can see the future but there is another big sub prime bubble about to happen in motor vehicle finance sector. Will the banks that are over leveraged be bailed out again?
    Exciting times for crypto.

    cArs are diffrent frm houses they can always repo and re sell
  • o0ragman0oo0ragman0o Member, Moderator Posts: 1,291 mod
    oslak said:

    @o0ragman0o I saw your enode on one of your old post, Is it still active? Having a hard time finding peers using 1.3.5/1.3.6 version of geth.

    @oslak No that was an Olympic test node. I don't run a full time node now.
  • o0ragman0oo0ragman0o Member, Moderator Posts: 1,291 mod
    greenuser said:



    At current eth prices anyhow. And with Bitcoin stealing the lime light....
    intersting times!

    I've been out of Bitcoin for so long I don't even really know the state of things, but...

    Spondoolies gone.
    KnCMiner gone.

    Only Bitmain and Bitfury left with 16nm fabs AFAIK.

    And Bitfury doesn't sell hash unless you want to buy a whole shipping container of it.

    Did anyone actually ROI on S7's so they could afford to roll over to S9's? coz they're worth crap now. At least the S9's have got another couple of years to ROI on relative Diff drop.

    So what's left? Dangerously centralised mining with unknown amounts of private hash...

  • oslakoslak Member Posts: 191
    @o0ragman0o @dlehenky Sorry, but is there a definite POS date now?
  • dolleminerdolleminer Member Posts: 50
    @oslak There is not much information about PoS. But Vitalik Buterin announced that they will release PoS Early 2017.

    I wanted like everyone else to get some ligit extra money. My intention is to stop working about 8 years. Cauz I am tired of working. I am now 30 years old and if you live in The Netherlands so I should work untill I am 75 before I can retire. What the F**** do I need to do at that age.

    Anyway I will put some time to learn exactly how PoS works and looking for Alternative coins or something else.
    You only live once.
  • o0ragman0oo0ragman0o Member, Moderator Posts: 1,291 mod
    @oslak, nothing I've heard.
  • ethfanethfan Member Posts: 458 ✭✭✭

    There is not much information about PoS. But Vitalik Buterin announced that they will release PoS Early 2017.

    Link to announcement?

    ...Cauz I am tired of working. I am now 30 years old ....

    LOL! I started working at that age (more or less, if I exclude my postgraduate training period where I was getting a pittance).
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