YOUR Timeline GUESTIMATES: ETHmining PoW =-> PoS switch(ing costs & timeline estimates)

A few friends of mine have asked me to create a small ETH MINE for them ... and an educated Redditer - Librty, you wanna self-identify? ... pointed out to not get caught investing in GPUs right before the Proof of Work swichover to Proof of Stake. (I was planning on going with second hand or refurbished anyway ... ) ... and then I was forwarded this : https://forum.ethereum.org/discussion/6407/why-you-should-not-mine-ethereum-now-with-more-rigs/p7 )

I've now read some more about CASPER, the PoW==>PoS switch, etc. . . and thought that it's not enough - but some. I know that many of you have thoughts. And some great links.

If you're hoping to read more ... here are some comments/articles you might like:
http://stackoverflow.com/questions/33802343/when-will-ethereum-switch-to-proof-of-stake/33802497#33802497
Is a good read, as is Vlad's article Aug 2015 "Introducing Casper “the Friendly Ghost""

Vinay's post on my birthday in 2015 (more than a year ago; Vinay, post more! It was a great read ) https://blog.ethereum.org/2015/03/03/ethereum-launch-process/ helped discuss from the 10,000 foot level the upcoming stages

LOE
Clearly the Level of Effort (LoE) is always difficult to accurately assess when looking up at the mountain (of code to come).

Cryptocompare is really the next article discussing the current LoEs being worked on to segue from HOMESTEAD, into METROPOLIS .... and then into SERENITY (which is the switch from PoW to PoS)
https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/guides/the-ethereum-releases-of-frontier-homestead-metropolis-and-serenity/ estimates of Serenity being released in early 2017 ....

Vitalik's discussions of SERENITY - great reads ...
https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/3y0ysi/understanding_serenity_part_i_abstraction
https://blog.ethereum.org/2016/03/05/serenity-poc2/
lead to some great comments too ...

QUESTION: Being in CHINA and its affect on PoS
QUESTIONWhat I wish would be talked about more would be the NETWORK EFFECT during SERENITY - and how it will affect those of us geographically located in the People's Republic of CHINESE FIREWALL?

When I read "5Eth/block with 17 second blocks" - I wonder how it will be possible for anyone in PRC to be involved in mining, or trying to be involved in VALIDATION.

Finally, there is a great thread here (as one commented - this thread is like the gift that keeps on giving) https://forum.ethereum.org/discussion/comment/35824/#Comment_35824
which includes this:
There was a presumption by the dev's that Casper POS would have been ready within about 16 months after the livenet was launched. They wanted a mechanism to phase out POW mining and so hard coded into the difficulty calculation an exponential component that would make difficult explode after that time.

POS development hasn't been so yielding for them and so they have postponed indefinitely the 'bomb' and have suggested instead a period wherein POW minining continues for the block chain, while POS is used to validate State. Only once POS has proved itself will they phase out POW altogether but there isn't even an approximate date when that might happen
.


Which has us end up on trying to understand how quickly we'll get from Homestead & Metropils (aka PoW) to Serenity (PoS) ...


So, what are your thoughts?
When will Serenity be rolled out?

Have any good links that reads?




Comments

  • dlehenkydlehenky Member Posts: 2,249 ✭✭✭✭
    Why do people keep asking this question that has no answer?
  • workwork Member Posts: 2,084 ✭✭✭✭
    It will roll out.... eventually. Anything beyond that is silly speculation unless you're involved in the core development.

    Personally I don't have much faith in PoS compared to PoW security, because of the internal vs external ecconomic incentives. But, it may ultimately be developed to provide sufficient network security.

    Investing in GPU mining is always questionable. That said, syaoran's thread is mostly fud, and a lot of his posts trying to predict the future are laughable. If you bought GPUs in mid April when that OP was written, you would be well on your way to ROI now. In fact, if you bought 15x refurb R9 290s for $3000, you would already have paid off over half your investment, and could cash out for a profit.

    What this probably should tell you is that nobody can predict the future. The past is not a good indicator of the future.
  • rawsushirawsushi Member Posts: 9
    Yeah, I know that I can buy R9 290s for decent prices, and that here in CHINA electricity costs are fairly cheap ... (cheaper than the USA) so ... if I got refurbs, then it's like 6x 220/gpu + 120 for motherboard = 1500 for the system.

    figure might have 8 months, 2 ETH / day x $10/ETH =
    (8months x 30 days x 2 ETH x $10/eth) - (8*100elec) - $1500 hw =
    4800 - 800 - 1500 = 2500 (assuming that the ETH are sold right away.
  • rawsushirawsushi Member Posts: 9
    dlehenky said:

    Why do people keep asking this question that has no answer?

    Because SPECULATION and DISCOURSE are great things

    Interaction with others is interesting - and occasionally, one learns something new.
    At a minimum it's good to look at it from another's perspective
  • rawsushirawsushi Member Posts: 9
    work said:

    - snip -

    Personally I don't have much faith in PoS compared to PoW security, because of the internal vs external ecconomic incentives. But, it may ultimately be developed to provide sufficient network security.

    work said:

    Yeah, it better be sufficient :smile: or the DAO concept will quickly have massive issues

    work said:

    Investing in GPU mining is always questionable.

    I find it strange that there are so many contrarian quotes coming from the ETHEREUM group.
    - ASIC mining (for BTC) is a waste because the ASICs are custom made (and hence have "no value" for other computing) for BTC mining
    - hence GPU mining for ETH ... but
    - GPU mining has unneedeed "excess heat" and therefore we should not do PoW, and now have PoS
    ... and with PoS, we all know that if it's possible to make money somewow (which is a good thing, in capitalism) people will start doing
    work said:

    That said, syaoran's thread is mostly fud, and a lot of his posts trying to predict the future are laughable.

    Learning.

    Only been on Reddit for a few days

  • dlehenkydlehenky Member Posts: 2,249 ✭✭✭✭
    rawsushi said:

    dlehenky said:

    Why do people keep asking this question that has no answer?

    Because SPECULATION and DISCOURSE are great things

    Interaction with others is interesting - and occasionally, one learns something new.
    At a minimum it's good to look at it from another's perspective
    SPECULATION accomplishes absolutely nothing. More often than not, it leads to poor decisions. DISCOURSE is a great thing, when it actually has substance. You'd be better off lying in a field watching the clouds go by than having DISCOURSE focused purely on SPECULATION about what a highly complex set of interactions may or may not do in a completely unknown future. Of course, that's just my take on it; you can obviously choose to do whatever you like.
  • greenusergreenuser 50.8862°N 4.5537°WMember Posts: 439 ✭✭
    edited May 2016
    I plan to Solo mine eth until the DAG reaches 2GB (i only got 2Gig GPUs) or until PoW shifts to PoS or which ever comes first (just before the end of year is out by my reckoning).
    Then switch to solo mine X11 Dash. The Dash price is looking better each and every day. :)

    Also, there is so much coming online now.
    The Russians are worth a watch, they have a PayPal like system (but far more advanced) called Yandex Money. https://money.yandex.ru/new
    They are recruiting programmers info here
    You can have an anonymous wallet with master-card too if you want. There may be a coin to mine in that soon.

    Also, bitcoin have smart contracts (RSK) here... http://www.rootstock.io/

    China Ledger will be interesting.

    Oh! and the bitcoin halving will impact things. When is that? About 8 weeks away?

    I guess the Brits and the Yanks will have a blockchain platform too soon. Maybe Ethereum will end up like PCI or IDE or HD DVD or AM Stereo or 5inch floppy or Betamax or 8-track cartridges or 240-line television or 96 rpm gramophone etc.
    Just not the chosen one. Maybe, maybe not. Only time will tell. I'm just along for the ride B)
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