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## Comments

113✭This is actually incorrect, I found that I could buy brand new R9 380 with 4GB for the price of R9 380 with 2Gb also brand new. They turned out to be 7% more economical than R9 390, you just need more space. But if I were you I wouldn't do anything until difficulty rise stops. Its a zero sum game at this point. When ethereum was in early stages short time inefficency existed where ethereum was priced very high relative to the cost of mining. There was a lag until this information spread to enough people which allowed to make money. We are at the final phase of this.

http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2015/08/entry-and-exit-leads-to-zero-profit-for-bitcoin-miners.html#.Vvzexdz0HIU

From now on we will be in zero sum game phase where network hashing power will continue to rise to the point until profits will reach electricity cost exactly as with bitcoin. The method of mining actually doesn't matter ASIC or GPU. The only difference is with powerful ASIC you are wiped out right away as soon as its released while with GPU you just face exponential decline of your profits. The end result is the same. To make it crystal clear lets use simple example. Suppose you invested 3000 dollars and the rig makes 1000$ a month. You are jumping from joy thinking that you will get your money back in 3 months. The difficulty rises 50%, which means that in a month you get 500$. Next month another 50%, you get 250$. Next month again 50% you get 125$. Then 62.5, 31.25, 15.62, 7.81. Lets add it all up, the total is 992.18 USD. Incredible isn't it? This is the power of negative compounding. Warren Buffet became the richest person in the world because his capital was compounding at just 20% ANNUAL rate. We are facing 40% negative MONTHLY compounding situation.

1,043✭✭✭Since to go from $1000->$500 the hashrate would need to double, but to go from $1000->$250, the hashrate would need to quadruple.

As the difficulty grows, it becomes harder and harder for it to keep growing at the same pace.

Even if we get 3 good months out of this... its still alot of money.

204✭1,043✭✭✭113✭113✭181✭✭at a future date if you are basing it on current rates of return.His analogy of the problem using a compound annual growth rate based on diff or global hash rate for returns isn't too far off the mark.Diff/GHR

isa parabolic rise, though may not fit traditional compounding models, because price is not a constant. I believe too many "new miners" may make the mistake of using current returns in their calculations without factoring this in. Unlike ilia7777's two-year scale, there's the one year (or less) looming brick wall called PoS, so investments should not be made that can't be recovered before thenassuming price stays at current rates. If you're willing (or naive enough) to believe price will continue to rise and "keep parity" with falling ETH returns, well that's a risk I don't think many would take. FWIW5✭I wondered if anyone had a spreadsheet they could share here where they've mapped out possible variables based on different factors described? Best case and worst case scenarios etc

I just did a very basic one for my setup, where I assumed a 40% monthly rise on Difficulty and a 10% monthly drop on my MH/s from GPU's - seems like it's okay in terms of returns over next 3 months but then gets very dire very quickly (regardless of whether Ether is $10 or $100).

593✭✭✭1,043✭✭✭Looking at some of these posts today in this forum, there are too many people who want to mine ETH and have no idea even how to build computers. Pretty soon my Grandmother will start mining ETH.

181✭✭$12/coin attracts a hell of a lot more flies than $2...

258✭✭We are at the edge of the cliff IMO.

1,043✭✭✭113✭1,043✭✭✭642✭✭✭113✭136✭✭1,043✭✭✭10✭143✭139✭✭143✭593✭✭✭593✭✭✭In the meanwhile the maxwells are trucking along at 150 watts per card or lower 130 ish an will be profitable 3-6 months longer.

Same thing happend when the 750s came performance/watt always wins in the long run because if an inifficent card is profitable those will be kicked out of the farms first.

1,291mod1,043✭✭✭593✭✭✭2,084✭✭✭✭143✭