Calculating how many blocks will be mined for a given hashrate

N.McA

Hey,

Could someone explain how to calculate the expected amount of ether mined for a given hashrate and network difficulty?

And also https://stats.ethdev.com/ seems to suggest difficulty is around 21e9 in the testnet, is that correct?

Regards,
N

mikkaaa

Interested in this too.

How many ethers one is expect to mine in an hour with a hashrate of 25MH/s , current difficulty or a bit more since more users coming.

Whats the formula?

sanded

Total noob here, I'm just guessing!
5 Ether per block during frontier apparantly. The calculation below is ignoring uncles, it's just for the static block reward.

The probability of mining a block should be uniformly
yourHashrate / totalHashrate.
Since a block apparantly is mined every minute (the difficulty is adjusted thereto)
etherPerDay = 24*60*5.
So after a day you can expect on average yourHashrate / totalHashrate * etherPerDay.

The stats currently state 3.1 GH/s as the total hashrate.
Assuming yourHashrate = 25 MH/s that yields
24*60*5*(25e6/3.1e9) = 58 Ether / day

Then again, I'd estimate the total hashrate to be maybe a hundred times higher when more miners run their rigs.
So a more careful estimate would be
24*60*5*(25e6/3.1e11) = 0.58 Ether / day.

Anything between (and outside of) these values is possible

Still open is the question of how likely it actually is to mine at least one of the 1440 blocks each day. If I'm not mistaken, then the geometric distribution applies when asking for how long to wait for a block.

I made a plot for this

hangabers

Isn't block propagation expected to be closer to 12 secs? Let's say, to stay conservative, it's every 24 seconds, this means 3600 blocks/day. So 24*60*2.5(block propagation)*5(Eth block reward)*(YourHashRate/NetworkHashRate). Or is it just not not conservative enough to estimate assuming a quick block time?

o0ragman0o

Sheet 2 of my spreed sheet has a naive calculator for this and expected rig returns:
Ethereum GPU Efficiencies

skithuno

I also put together some rough [graphs on profitability](http://spacience.blogspot.com/2015/07/ethereum-profitability-basics.html) based on Ether value, Your hash rate and network hash rate.

hangabers

Love the calculator, didn't see that at first. thank you both