Total noob here, I'm just guessing! 5 Ether per block during frontier apparantly. The calculation below is ignoring uncles, it's just for the static block reward.
The probability of mining a block should be uniformly yourHashrate / totalHashrate. Since a block apparantly is mined every minute (the difficulty is adjusted thereto) etherPerDay = 24*60*5. So after a day you can expect on average yourHashrate / totalHashrate * etherPerDay.
The stats currently state 3.1 GH/s as the total hashrate. Assuming yourHashrate = 25 MH/s that yields 24*60*5*(25e6/3.1e9) = 58 Ether / day
Then again, I'd estimate the total hashrate to be maybe a hundred times higher when more miners run their rigs. So a more careful estimate would be 24*60*5*(25e6/3.1e11) = 0.58 Ether / day.
Anything between (and outside of) these values is possible
Still open is the question of how likely it actually is to mine at least one of the 1440 blocks each day. If I'm not mistaken, then the geometric distribution applies when asking for how long to wait for a block.
Isn't block propagation expected to be closer to 12 secs? Let's say, to stay conservative, it's every 24 seconds, this means 3600 blocks/day. So 24*60*2.5(block propagation)*5(Eth block reward)*(YourHashRate/NetworkHashRate). Or is it just not not conservative enough to estimate assuming a quick block time?
Comments
How many ethers one is expect to mine in an hour with a hashrate of 25MH/s , current difficulty or a bit more since more users coming.
Whats the formula?
5 Ether per block during frontier apparantly. The calculation below is ignoring uncles, it's just for the static block reward.
The probability of mining a block should be uniformly
yourHashrate / totalHashrate.
Since a block apparantly is mined every minute (the difficulty is adjusted thereto)
etherPerDay = 24*60*5.
So after a day you can expect on average yourHashrate / totalHashrate * etherPerDay.
The stats currently state 3.1 GH/s as the total hashrate.
Assuming yourHashrate = 25 MH/s that yields
24*60*5*(25e6/3.1e9) = 58 Ether / day
Then again, I'd estimate the total hashrate to be maybe a hundred times higher when more miners run their rigs.
So a more careful estimate would be
24*60*5*(25e6/3.1e11) = 0.58 Ether / day.
Anything between (and outside of) these values is possible
Still open is the question of how likely it actually is to mine at least one of the 1440 blocks each day. If I'm not mistaken, then the geometric distribution applies when asking for how long to wait for a block.
I made a plot for this
Ethereum GPU Efficiencies