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Could someone explain how to calculate the expected amount of ether mined for a given hashrate and network difficulty?

And also https://stats.ethdev.com/ seems to suggest difficulty is around 21e9 in the testnet, is that correct?

Regards,

N

## Comments

34✭How many ethers one is expect to mine in an hour with a hashrate of 25MH/s , current difficulty or a bit more since more users coming.

Whats the formula?

20✭5 Ether per block during frontier apparantly. The calculation below is ignoring uncles, it's just for the static block reward.

The probability of mining a block should be uniformly

yourHashrate / totalHashrate.

Since a block apparantly is mined every minute (the difficulty is adjusted thereto)

etherPerDay = 24*60*5.

So after a day you can expect on average yourHashrate / totalHashrate * etherPerDay.

The stats currently state 3.1 GH/s as the total hashrate.

Assuming yourHashrate = 25 MH/s that yields

24*60*5*(25e6/3.1e9) = 58 Ether / day

Then again, I'd estimate the total hashrate to be maybe a hundred times higher when more miners run their rigs.

So a more careful estimate would be

24*60*5*(25e6/3.1e11) = 0.58 Ether / day.

Anything between (and outside of) these values is possible

Still open is the question of how likely it actually is to mine at least one of the 1440 blocks each day. If I'm not mistaken, then the geometric distribution applies when asking for how long to wait for a block.

I made a plot for this

63✭1,291modEthereum GPU Efficiencies

74✭63✭