NetHash & Difficulty Estimates by August due to Bitmain E3

techtottechtot Member Posts: 338 ✭✭
edited May 15 in Mining
Network hash has been around 250,000 to 260,000 GH/s range for a while, but looks like it is starting to push towards 300,000 GH/s . Difficulty is moving toward 3400 TH rapidly. (5/14/18)

The question is what will the hashrate/diff go to with all the Antminers shipping in July? It takes 50 of them to make 10GH/s (~200MH per unit)

Every 100,000 they sell will increase nethash by 20,000 GH, so if Bitmain sells 1/2 a million "E3"'s, the nethash will go up to 350,000 real fast. This will push Difficulty to roughly 4600 TH. Without a price increase, earnings will decrease by roughly 30% if this happens.

Any educated guesses on how many of these Antimer E3's are being bought? Am I anywhere close on the 1/2 million in sales estimate? I am just trying to gauge and plan for later this year if the sh*t hits the fan. I guess technically some of them might be being bought to replace video cards which would decrease their hash contribution. Another thought is that hopefully the price of the coin will go up because cost of production (electricity) isn't really going down at all with these antminers. However, I am kind of worried about what they are hiding in the closet. If the hash jumps dramatically before July, we know they've started using the next-gen E3's while selling their old stock to the public.

Anyway, I am not here for an ASIC/GPU debate, as that ship has sailed for now. Just looking for some thoughts on where hashrate and difficulty are headed.

Comments

  • sutheksuthek Member Posts: 324 ✭✭
    $2000 USD to make 180 to 200mh/s
    ...
    That's no different than a 6-7 card mining rig in price and power consumption.

    Only thing this has that a traditional rig doesn't is form factor? right?
    What's the appeal of these bitmain machines?
  • techtottechtot Member Posts: 338 ✭✭
    Well the cheapest mobo+CPU+mem+decent PS is a base price of ~$200,

    then either

    6 x RX5xx @ $275 + $200 = $1850 total , but power consumption is going to be higher, maybe 900-1000 watts , right? (I use NV, so I am not sure)

    or

    6 x GTX 1070 @ $400+$200 = $2400, and power is at or under 800 watts.

    So, you are right, but I worry about their cost to make these E3's. The first day they were selling for $800, and then changed it the next day to $2150. If they really only cost them <$800 to make we are in trouble, because they will keep lowering the price.

    I think the appeal is the simplicity, for most professional miners, of "plug and go," but I agree it is less versitile for the price, so maybe it is not as bad as I think.
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