It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

- 16.2K All Categories
- 9K Mining
- 511 Pool Discussion
- 57 Promotional
- 1.3K General Project Discussion (non-technical)
- 433 Education
- 760 Protocol and Client discussion
- 149 web3-js
- 24 Whisper
- 13 Swarm
- 3 RLP
- 293 IoT & Hardware
- 997 Smart Contracts and Dapps
- 28 Serpent
- 339 Solidity
- 557 Projects
- 1.2K Reference clients code and builds
- 248 Eth & AlethZero- Cpp Implementation
- 462 Geth - Go Implementation
- 239 Mist
- 15 Node.js Implementation
- 36 Python Implementation
- 48 Mix
- 30 Other Implementations
- 159 Meetups
- 36 Other Events
- 197 Jobs & Skills
- 204 Press and Articles
- 74 Audio/Video
- 284 Ether Sale
- 1.1K Other Languages
- 88 Chinese
- 245 German
- 31 Italian
- 104 French
- 2 Hebrew
- 34 Japanese
- 66 Portugese
- 44 Romanian
- 174 Russian
- 214 Spanish
- 42 Turkish
- 118 Watercooler

Could someone explain how to calculate the expected amount of ether mined for a given hashrate and network difficulty?

And also https://stats.ethdev.com/ seems to suggest difficulty is around 21e9 in the testnet, is that correct?

Regards,

N

## Comments

34✭How many ethers one is expect to mine in an hour with a hashrate of 25MH/s , current difficulty or a bit more since more users coming.

Whats the formula?

20✭5 Ether per block during frontier apparantly. The calculation below is ignoring uncles, it's just for the static block reward.

The probability of mining a block should be uniformly

yourHashrate / totalHashrate.

Since a block apparantly is mined every minute (the difficulty is adjusted thereto)

etherPerDay = 24*60*5.

So after a day you can expect on average yourHashrate / totalHashrate * etherPerDay.

The stats currently state 3.1 GH/s as the total hashrate.

Assuming yourHashrate = 25 MH/s that yields

24*60*5*(25e6/3.1e9) = 58 Ether / day

Then again, I'd estimate the total hashrate to be maybe a hundred times higher when more miners run their rigs.

So a more careful estimate would be

24*60*5*(25e6/3.1e11) = 0.58 Ether / day.

Anything between (and outside of) these values is possible

Still open is the question of how likely it actually is to mine at least one of the 1440 blocks each day. If I'm not mistaken, then the geometric distribution applies when asking for how long to wait for a block.

I made a plot for this

63✭1,278modEthereum GPU Efficiencies

74✭63✭