Mining profitability calculator

franknedfrankned Posts: 6Member
Hello fellow miners,

As you all have noticed the net hash rate increased a lot the last few months, resulting in less mining rewards. Also the block time increases which also results in less ether to us. To my opinion the available online mining calculators do not take these factors into account sufficiently.
I've developed a mining profitability calculator which forecasts the net hash rate and daily ether to miners and thus gives a more reliable profitability calculation. The calculator is still in development and please provide feedback of how it can be improved. Source code of the calculator can be found on github, see left side of the calculator.

Profitability calculator


Comments

  • donsebadonseba NetherlandsPosts: 22Member
    By your prediction anyone who starts mining today with 2 cards ( 55mh/s ) spending 500 USD for this mini rig would never make any profit.. ( at 180 USD per ether. ) ( With 0.4 KW power at the wall. )

    that's something interesting, and if it is correct it could be a good warning for people who want to start investing in small rigs. or even rigs that produce 150mh/s @ 2000 usd ( 800watt at the wall ) with ether at the current price of 180 usd . there will never be any ROI.

    Could you make the same for example ETC / and other GPU minable coins.

    PS. I do not think the difficulty keeps increasing the way it did the last few months.. there are not enough GPU's to keep the expanse going, and some miners will switch to other coins and hardware will break eventually.
  • franknedfrankned Posts: 6Member
    Hi Donseba,

    Yes correct, when the ether price remains the same those mining setups will never be profitable. I expect a slowdown in difficulty increase aswell but I am afraid most miners will not see a 100% ROI.

    The forecasts are based on the aggregated values of the full chain, source code. This took about a week to fully run. I'll consider to do this if there are multiple requests from the community:).

    First next step will be to spin up a vm to update the modeldata on a daily basis.
  • pau1pau1 Posts: 11Member
    edited July 17
    Damn! I'm at 125MH/s and I won't even break even in a year. Only 38% ROI.

    I've only been mining for a month.

    PS. If the price of Eth raises above $280, I'll only just break even.
  • donsebadonseba NetherlandsPosts: 22Member
    edited July 17
    @pau1 , do not forget this is for ethereum only, there are other coins that have great potential with lower difficulty. (Like musiccoin. @ 125 mh/s you can probably get about 380 coins a day. ) mine some of those and hold em till it catches up. ubiq seems to be doing okay to.. ( I like them because they are NON ICO, and NOT premined... )

    @frankned I like it , it is nicely done. Think it would be good if others like it to to put it somewhere more visible to warn people of the risk in mining costs
  • sutheksuthek Posts: 65Member
    Anyone else notice the ethereum price always ticks up monday morning?
    I mean it never seems to recover from the weekend of death... but it seems like clockwork that it does bounce back.

    I'd almost suggest just buying coins on a Sunday night and selling Monday morning.
  • franknedfrankned Posts: 6Member
    @donseba I agree, feel free to mention it at other places / promote it.

    @suthek, could build a forecaster fo that aswell;)
  • sutheksuthek Posts: 65Member
    Side note,
    I use this website for profit.
    http://www.mycryptobuddy.com/EthereumMiningCalculator

    Seems to factor in real-world difficulty and estimates difficulty climb based on historic growth.
    The estimates on this website are even more grim than your calculator.
  • franknedfrankned Posts: 6Member
    @suthek, funny that you mention that one. Mrcryptobuddy takes a linear difficulty increase into account. As you can see on etherscan.io difficulty the difficulty increase is not linear.

    I've used the difficulty of all past 4M+ blocks to estimate the the daily net hash rate change. This in turn is used for the forecast.

  • sutheksuthek Posts: 65Member
    You're not expecting difficulty to climb at the same rate it currently is?
  • franknedfrankned Posts: 6Member
    That's two different things, what I expect and what the calculator says ;). As mentioned above I expect a slowdown in difficulty increase, and for now that is in line with the calculator.

    A little more technical: Currently I use auto.arima as forecast function. I'll might add and exponential to it let the difficulty increase quicker if needed.
  • donsebadonseba NetherlandsPosts: 22Member
    suthek said:

    Side note,
    The estimates on this website are even more grim than your calculator.

    Haha, that is horrendous, makes you almost want to sell your rig.. ;)

    Having this calculator will be an eye opener for most. It would be really cool if this calculator could be combined with whattomine.com . piece of software like that could make some money too. but also to prevent new miners to do something stupid.

  • sutheksuthek Posts: 65Member
    Either way... I'm in about $1000 USD and making 88 MH/s on my little rig.
    So hopefully I can get as much of that back before the difficulty gets stupid.
  • leeboy123leeboy123 Posts: 3Member
    There are a couple additional factors to consider that I don't see mentioned above: the price of ETH in the future (weeks, months, years), and the value of your hardware.

    Let's say you spend $2k on a rig that does 150 MH/s and 800 watts at the wall. With the current price of ETH, current difficulty, network hash rate, and future predictions on difficulty....then yes -- it would take months or a year or more to make back your $2k.

    BUT...

    You're here because you believe in crypto, right? I don't think the price of ETH is anywhere even remotely close to it's peak, or future stable value. Let's say the price of ETH triples in the next year (and what about 2 -5 years from now? It could explode. It also might not, thus the risk). If it does explode, then that changes things drastically, and can make all the difference between a loss and a profit.

    Also, when you purchase a mining rig, the cost of the hardware doesn't immediately depreciate to $0. If you can sell your $2k rig 1 year from now and recoup $500 - $1k, then you just reduced your break-even point.

    If you're mining to cash out your ETH for USD as quickly as possible, I wouldn't recommend getting into it. If you're bullish on ETH in the long term, then what I'd do today, is take a portion of your crypto-investable money and put some of it into a mining rig, and the rest of it into outright purchasing ETH and whatever other coins you think have value.

    Just my 2 cents :)
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